A win, is not always a win

EQUITY RUN UPDATE:  $15,375 //  + 53.75% since inception (Apr. 2017).   If you want sports at all, among the many cliches that coaches express on a daily basis are the following:  "it's a win and we'll take it," "it wasn't pretty, but a win is a win," "it's tough to get wins in this … Continue reading A win, is not always a win

Good things take time, just like price reversals

One-day trend reversals are memorable.  They happen so fast that you don't have time to react, especially if you wait, as you should, for the end of the day to place your trade.  However, just because they are memorable like plane crashes, it doesn't mean they are the norm.  They are not. The best reversal patterns … Continue reading Good things take time, just like price reversals

Inside the ATR = gambling

EQUITY RUN UPDATE = $14,984  |  +49.86%  |   There are some who have developed good day-trading strategies that are successful.  For the rest of us, trading within a day's price range is the equivalent of gambling, guessing, hoping and finger-crossing. The ATR is the  average trading range which can be measured by averaging the … Continue reading Inside the ATR = gambling

USD in the next 6-12 months

EQUITY RUN UPDATE : $10,365             A friend asked me where I thought the US Dollar would be next year.  I thought that it would a tough call, as any long-term call can be... But I gave it a shot.  Here is a copy of message to him: 9/24/17, 21:57:56: … Continue reading USD in the next 6-12 months

This is when you should change views

EQUITY RUN UPDATE:  $10,909.             Switching views isn't easy and it should be done with caution.  Flip-flopping at every piece of news or at the turn of a candle is no view at all, it's just blowing with the wind.  Additionally, some of the greatest trades in history were made … Continue reading This is when you should change views

Though stretch? Don’t think you can out-hustle the markets…

Equity run update:  $11,056.             It's football season again.  It's time for coaches' press conferences... When they talk about being "out-played", "out-coached", and "out hustled" by the other team.  When the market beats you up, do not try to "out-hustle" it.  You will only make the losses worse.  It's been … Continue reading Though stretch? Don’t think you can out-hustle the markets…

Why keep a trade blotter?

Equity Run Update:  $12,849   What's a blotter? It's a record of every single trade you take. There are several automated online systems that can track your positions and give you pretty reports, etc. on your performance.  Even my broker, between the trading platform and the statements, does a good job giving me a sense … Continue reading Why keep a trade blotter?

How to deal with (trading) heartbreak.

I've had my share of scars. Some of the most memorable moments in my trading life, where positions that went from profitable, to potentially life changing profitable, to painful losses. The "life-changing" part of some trades triggers the type of irrationality that characterizes many life experiences, not least of which the type the junior high … Continue reading How to deal with (trading) heartbreak.

Choose principles that stand the test of time

The only was that you can build a sustainable trading system is to develop principles that stand the test of time.  A simple test for your principles is to ask this simple question, several days/months after the trade is done: Would I take that trade again?  Regardless of the success of a specific trade, the … Continue reading Choose principles that stand the test of time

Speculators are scumbags

The role of financial speculators, especially when it comes to agricultural commodities, has often been villainized by political activists and special interests groups.  The criticism has been particularly strong in my lifetime during periods of rising (food) commodities prices, such as the decade between 2005 and 2015.  Check out this article and the study it refers … Continue reading Speculators are scumbags