The flow and the hot-hand fallacy

EQUITY RUN UPDATE = $18,307  | + 83%  since inception (April 2017). Finally out of a four-month drawdown!  I hate drawdowns.  The shorter, the better. When I played basketball we often made end-of-game decisions based on who had the "hot hand."  Meaning, we would give the ball for the final shot to the player who … Continue reading The flow and the hot-hand fallacy

Inside the ATR = gambling

EQUITY RUN UPDATE = $14,984  |  +49.86%  |   There are some who have developed good day-trading strategies that are successful.  For the rest of us, trading within a day's price range is the equivalent of gambling, guessing, hoping and finger-crossing. The ATR is the  average trading range which can be measured by averaging the … Continue reading Inside the ATR = gambling