You don’t have to catch every trend

Equity Update = $18,609 | +86% from inception.     It's hard sight to see that commodity take off and you not participating in the move.  A punch in the gut.  You do the math on what it could have been and you can see what appears a once-a-year type of opportunity.  Yet, don't believe … Continue reading You don’t have to catch every trend

The flow and the hot-hand fallacy

EQUITY RUN UPDATE = $18,307  | + 83%  since inception (April 2017). Finally out of a four-month drawdown!  I hate drawdowns.  The shorter, the better. When I played basketball we often made end-of-game decisions based on who had the "hot hand."  Meaning, we would give the ball for the final shot to the player who … Continue reading The flow and the hot-hand fallacy

Don’t fight the trend

I've seen so many traders calling the next reversal and probably loose their shirts over it.  It's especially difficult to resist the temptation to take a counter-trend trade when that particular market had only recently had a massive move in the direction you want to take.  For example, since the 2008 stock market crash, I've … Continue reading Don’t fight the trend