The political headlines are quieter. Interest rates are inching higher again (after the negative close to the week). USD is being dragged higher. Well, you know the drill by now… precious metals weaker. Yet, they are nearing the 2018 support levels which has proven to be a “buying spot” 3-4 times already. Decisions will be made by those still on the sidelines.
PGM’s are weaker. Manufacturing data from China last night wasn’t great.
* Oil: More rigs in the US, softer demand from China, large long positions by spec are all negative. Yet, RBOB demand is strong. Long-term investments are weak.
* NatGas: Friday’s reversal was followed by news of 12 rigs being added, a big weekly jump.
It was a good weekend for planting. Some projections for this afternoon’s Progress Report have jumped to 25% complete for Corn. Yet, it’s Argentina that is resurfacing in the headlines with concerns that it doesn’t have enough beans to satisfy their meal and oil commitments. Harvest results are poor.
* Cotton: better rain chances in TX, very long specs could dampen the rally.
* Coffee: CoT showed last week’s move was primarily shorts covering their positions. Changes in production expectations could help the move, but it’s sill early.
* Cocoa: the rally has been steep, some profits have been taken off the table. Weather is bearish, yet specs are far off record positions.
* Sugar: Short-covering bounce, so far. S&D outlook unchanged.
* Cattle: discount of June futures to cash is the supportive snapshot for this week, going into high demand season.
* Hogs: weaker, but watch for positive changes in NAFTA.
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