Booy’s #Commodities #60SecUpdate #28

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METALS

With no change in ECB policy the Euro confirmed the negative reversal pattern, which in turn is supporting the USD further.  Short-term implications continue to be negative for precious metals.  Industrial metals are back on the defensive, as good production data and a milder political climate, pressure Copper and PGM’s.

ENERGY

* Oil: storage data was bearish, putting another dent in the bullish case.  Yet, China refinery downsizing (-10%) is supportive and export pace is strong.  * NatGas: the draw in storage was bigger than expected, but the mid-term weather forecast is non-threatening.

GRAINS

Planting in the US is making good progress this week.  Expectations for Monday’s report are above 15% of corn planted.  S. American harvest also moving quickly. Brazil effectively done, while Argentina around 50% complete.  There, soybean yields are terrible, leading to even more negative harvest projections. Bean Oil at the lowest level in 2 years! Stats Canada will publish their production numbers this morning and it will influence Wheat.  Trade talks are still running in the background.

SOFTS

* Cotton: another excellent week for exports, running well-ahead of USDA’s projections.  Weather remains problematic. * Coffee: Attempting another technical breakout after the one-day reversal.  Yet, there is no threat to production at this time. * Cocoa: brutal reversal yesterday and follow through today, on profit-taking after the steep rally.  * Sugar: The downtrend is not over, but we are starting to see the first reductions in global production forecasts.

LIVESTOCK

* Cattle: Seasonally, the market is positive into May but then declines into summer” (D. Roose).  * Hogs: Exports were strong yesterday, but don’t lose sight of NAFTA and China changes.

 

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