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* Aluminum and Palladium have retraced about half of the politics-induced rally, as sanctions against Russia’s Rusal loosen up. These metals are down 19% and 8.5% from the peaks of 5 days ago. * Precious metals keep a tight inverse correlation with USD and interest rates. Higher rates = higher USD = lower Gold and Silver. Better than expected New Homes Sales supports Copper.
* Oil: interesting intraday reversal yesterday. Seems the harbinger of a greater correction. API data was bearish. EIA Report expectations: -1M bbl. * NatGas: expectations for tomorrow’s storage report is for a draw (-9Bcf) vs. a normal injection (+60Bcf).
Crop Progress on Monday showed a very slow planting pace: Corn 5% planted vs.7% exp. and 14% average. Soybeans 2% = to estimates = to historic average. Winter wheat conditions came in at 31% G/E versus trade estimates at 32% G/E. Soybean harvest in Brazil is effectively complete and most recent estimates have it at a record 119.2M metric tons.
* Cotton: crop progress showed 9% planted, near normal. Weather remains challenging: too dry in TX, too wet in the SE US. * Coffee: the July contract broke out of the 3-month descending wedge and it’s retesting the break this morning. Weaker BRL is a negative * Cocoa: another move higher, as production estimates from W. Africa have tapered down (down 5-15% vs. last year). * Sugar: down another 3% overnight. -22% since 3/2/18.
Cold Storage Report showed beef +1% in Mar., unchanged YoY. Pork in storage was up 0.2% MoM and +12% YoY.