[I’m adding a new line to all my post. An update on my trading balance]
Journeyman updated Equity Run: $12,020.99.
Many continue to scratch their heads at the North Korean problem and provide many plausible reasons for why it has gone on to develop a nuclear arsenal and insists on provoking a potential conflict with it’s eastern enemies, starting with South Korea, then Japan and finally the United States.
I hear an occasional reference to China, as the one that ought to do more to stop Kim Jung-un from his narcissistic, self-defeating behavior. Yet, I don’t hear too many talk about the possibility that China actually wants Kim to keep everyone busy.
What if China is actually supporting Kim? What if the “crazy-man behavior” is just a decoy for what is actually happening in the South and East China seas? Tim Daiss on Forbes a little over a year ago said,
…geologists are now taking another look at what might actually lie beneath the South China Sea and if they are even partially right, China could emerge with more than just bragging rights if it controls most of the South China Sea – they could also potentially hold hundreds of millions of barrels of oil, even more.
That’s not to mention the work China has been doing for years now in the East China Sea against primarily Japan.
If diplomatic and military resources are focused on Korea, through what’s effectively and expandable buffer nation with an expandable leader blamable for all malfeasance, China can continue to build its own military outpost in the contested waters until it’s too difficult to remove them. They’ll have control of the region. In exchange for the barking that Kim can do to keep the rest of the world busy, China will feed his people and keep any revolution at bay so that he can keep the family business going.
The strategy seems so obvious to me, that I’m sure the U.S. military leadership has already discussed it. Which then begs the question, why is the U.S. President playing along with the cat and mouse game that Kim/China is inviting him to? Is it just a front to deal with China from the backdoor in exchange of something else? That would be the optimistic view. The other is simply a ridiculous confrontation of two narcissists, whose symptoms have clearly been on display for some time by both of them.
Meanwhile, I’m watching the direction of all metals, precious (=fear) and industrial (=stockpiling for war), as potential indicators that the markets already know what’s about to happen.